First, PVC products supply situation analysis

1、Distribution of production capacity

PVC products, that is, polyvinyl chloride products, the main upstream for the PVC industry. From the point of view of the geographical distribution of production capacity, China's PVC production capacity is mainly concentrated in the Northwest, North China two regions, of which, the Northwest PVC production capacity accounted for more than 50% of the country's total production capacity.PVC domestic industry competition is fierce, although there are only about nearly a hundred domestic PVC production enterprises, but the industry concentration is low, in 2020, China's PVC industry CR10 is only 34%.

2, production changes

After the economic crisis in 2008, under the pull of 4 trillion economic stimulus policy, the domestic PVC production capacity has seen a resumption of growth, and the production capacity has been expanding, and the production capacity reached a high value of 24.77 million tons in 2013.

However, China's PVC industry in 2013-2015 was significantly overcapacity, the industry as a whole was in the loss-making state, and the enterprise production was not high. 2014 began the negative growth of production capacity, and in 2015, PVC production capacity reached a low point of 22.22 million tons, and the enterprise production as a whole was not high.

In the context of the policy of production capacity, PVC industry after market-oriented regulation, backward production capacity has been eliminated, the effective production capacity is in a gradual downward trend, the cumulative decline in three years time is about 2.5 million tons.At the end of 2015, the situation of the PVC industry's supply is seriously greater than the demand has been alleviated, and the pattern of supply and demand has returned to a relatively balanced state.In 2016, the development of PVC industry has improved, and the rate of starting work has steadily rebounded, capacity utilization rate increased, coupled with the new capacity put again accelerated, domestic PVC production capacity to maintain a steady growth trend.

At the end of 2019, China's PVC production exceeded 20 million tons, and in 2020, the domestic production capacity exceeded to reach 27 million tons.The total production capacity between 2017 and 2020 increased by a total of 3 million tons.

According to the "China PVC products industry development status quo research and future prospects research report (2022-2029)" released by GuanRenReport.com, 2021, although the production unit maintains a high load operation trend, but China's PVC new capacity is less, only 1.83% year-on-year, only put into production Shanxi Ruiheng 100,000 tons of equipment and Gansu Jinchuan 60,000 tons of equipment, 160,000 tons of new capacity Release, and the new capacity are not to reach full production. 2021 new capacity is mainly in the second half of the release, and the second half of the beginning of the production enterprise overhaul program gradually reduce the PVC supply is expected to increase, the market is expected to alleviate the situation of tight supply, but there is a supply-demand imbalance is not probable.

However, from the new production capacity in recent years, the PVC industry, the progress of the capacity release is increasingly affected by environmental protection and other policies, and the approval process is increasingly stringent, it is expected that the rapid growth of production capacity is limited.

3, upstream production

As of the end of 2021, China's total PVC production capacity of about 26.25 million tons, of which 20.6 million tons of calcium carbide PVC production capacity, accounting for 78.7% of the total production capacity, but also so that the price of calcium carbide directly affects the price of PVC. China's calcium carbide production capacity decreased from 48 million tons in 2015 to 41 million tons in 2020. From the point of view of calcium carbide production, in 2015-2019, China's calcium carbide production is relatively stable, basically maintained at about 26 million tons. With the gradual clearing of old domestic production capacity, China's calcium carbide capacity utilization rate has been improving, and in 2020, China's calcium carbide capacity utilization rate reached 67%.

In 2021, by rising coal prices, energy consumption double control and other factors, calcium carbide manufacturers start by a greater impact, calcium carbide prices soared nearly two times, resulting in the production cost of PVC continues to increase, so that part of the outsourcing of calcium carbide PVC producers and even incurred losses. At the same time, the supply of calcium carbide is insufficient, some PVC producers are forced to start work to reduce the negative, PVC supply continues to tighten. Looking ahead, in 2022, the domestic will still grasp the double control of energy consumption, the price of calcium carbide should still have strong support, PVC will also face high cost support.

Also therefore, China's PVC, although still dominated by the calcium carbide method, but the proportion of ethylene production capacity is gradually increasing. Ethylene is one of the world's largest production of chemical products, but also the core of the petrochemical industry, is to measure the level of development of a country's petrochemical industry is one of the important symbols. And PVC is an important downstream of ethylene, the demand accounts for 5% of the total demand for ethylene.

Second, PVC products demand analysis

PVC is widely used, mainly divided into two categories of hard and soft products, many products, in all areas of daily consumption are applied. Among them, pipes, fittings is China's PVC consumption in large areas, accounting for about 36% of the total consumption of PVC. Profiles, doors and windows is the second largest consumption areas, accounting for about 14% of the total consumption of PVC!